Where Does Romney Go From Here?

Mitt Romney HAS to win Michigan next week. He's from Michigan, his father was governor of Michigan, Michigan is critical. Should he lose Michigan, it's over. He won't win South Carolina (Goes to Huckabee) and the loss of momentum from three straight losses will create an avalanche, sucking support away from his campaign.

Where that support goes is another matter... Personally, there's no way I can go to Huckabee or McCain; leaving Thompson and Giuliani. Maybe this is the shot in the arm that Thompson needs. More likely, I think Romney supporters will break for Giuliani, but is he too far out of it? Combining Romney supporters with Thompson supporters in the South might provide a winning coalition against Huckabee. Otherwise, I think you'll see Huckabee win most the South and a few states in the midwest and west, a few going to Romney and Giuliani and the rest going to McCain. Not sure who the nominee would be between Huckabee and McCain (Probably McCain), but either way, I don't want them.

And I think there's a real likelihood Thompson drops out after tonight. So far, he's done miserably tonight. Last I saw, he had less than a thousand votes to McCain's 30,000 votes. He'll probably hold on until South Carolina, but whether he drops out now or then, if he endorses McCain, it's over...

For Romney to win, he is going to have to inspire. For all the tribute to Reagan this campaign, the only candidate that comes close to the optimism of Reagan is Obama. Romney CAN do that from time to time and is good at it. His latest emphasis seems to be "change" which isn't going to work. For one thing, Change just doesn't work for the Republicans as well as the Democrats. For one thing, there have been 8 years of Republicans in the White House. Romney's policies aren't radically different than current policies for the most part. He needs to inspire.

McCain

"Came to New Hampshire to tell voters the truth." He sure wasn't telling the truth the other night in the debate about amnesty and taxes... He also "didn't go to Washington to go along to get along". He may not have gone there for that, but that's sure what he's done. McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, McCain-Leiberman... This is the same McCain people were seriously talking about running in 2004 AS A DEMOCRAT!!! How are people forgetting this?

He's the only speaker I've seen yet to read his speech. I would've thought he could memorize a ten minute victory speech...

Romney's Concession

Good speech. He needs to stick with the inspiring message of optimism and dump the "policy wonk" talk apparently... People want something to believe in and his speech tonight was very good. Personally, I like specifics over the warm and fuzzy stuff, but I'm probably in the minority there... Don't get me wrong, I want to be inspired, but I also want some substance. But hey, that's just me.

Huckabee Comes in Third

Pretty good showing for the Governor from Hope. 12% is much more respectable than the numbers he'd been showing a few weeks ago. About as good as he could expect, considering the dearth of Evangelicals.

Giuliani is mired in fourth, just 1% over nutty Ron Paul. He's done.

Early Democratic Returns...

Are not looking good for Obama. That may change. But he's down 5 points. Hillary may be alive yet.