Where Does Romney Go From Here?

Mitt Romney HAS to win Michigan next week. He's from Michigan, his father was governor of Michigan, Michigan is critical. Should he lose Michigan, it's over. He won't win South Carolina (Goes to Huckabee) and the loss of momentum from three straight losses will create an avalanche, sucking support away from his campaign.

Where that support goes is another matter... Personally, there's no way I can go to Huckabee or McCain; leaving Thompson and Giuliani. Maybe this is the shot in the arm that Thompson needs. More likely, I think Romney supporters will break for Giuliani, but is he too far out of it? Combining Romney supporters with Thompson supporters in the South might provide a winning coalition against Huckabee. Otherwise, I think you'll see Huckabee win most the South and a few states in the midwest and west, a few going to Romney and Giuliani and the rest going to McCain. Not sure who the nominee would be between Huckabee and McCain (Probably McCain), but either way, I don't want them.

And I think there's a real likelihood Thompson drops out after tonight. So far, he's done miserably tonight. Last I saw, he had less than a thousand votes to McCain's 30,000 votes. He'll probably hold on until South Carolina, but whether he drops out now or then, if he endorses McCain, it's over...

For Romney to win, he is going to have to inspire. For all the tribute to Reagan this campaign, the only candidate that comes close to the optimism of Reagan is Obama. Romney CAN do that from time to time and is good at it. His latest emphasis seems to be "change" which isn't going to work. For one thing, Change just doesn't work for the Republicans as well as the Democrats. For one thing, there have been 8 years of Republicans in the White House. Romney's policies aren't radically different than current policies for the most part. He needs to inspire.